Bayesian Reconstruction of Past Populations and Vital Rates by Age for Developing and Developed Countries∗

We extend Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, with fully probabilistic statements of uncertainty. It simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates and net international migration flows from fragmentary data while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction takes initial bias-reduced estimates of age-specific population counts, fertility rates, survival proportions and net international migration. We extend the method to apply to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also develop a method for using it to assess the consistency between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems. We show that the method works well in countries with widely ∗Mark C. Wheldon is Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354320, Seattle, WA 98195 (e-mail: [email protected]). Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Box 354322 (e-mail: [email protected]). Samuel J. Clark is Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Washington, Box 353340, Seattle, WA 98195 (e-mail: [email protected]). Patrick Gerland is Population Affairs Officer, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, NY 10017 (e-mail: [email protected]). This work was supported by grants R01 HD054511, R01 HD070936, K01 HD057246 and 5R24HD042828 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD). The first author received partial support from a Shanahan Endowment Fellowship and NICHD training grant 5T32HD007543 to the Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology at the University of Washington. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations. This paper has not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations.